Policy primer

Order or chaos? Many Brexit questions are unanswered

What are the biggest sticking points, and why are they taking so long to resolve?

The U.K. is meant to leave the EU in March 2019. Given the time needed for the ratification of the Brexit deal, it’s no exaggeration to say that the next few weeks will decide whether the U.K. has an orderly exit or a chaotic and unpredictable no-deal exit.

What is the next big milestone?

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has envisioned the withdrawal negotiations ending in October in order to give the European Parliament, the U.K. parliament and EU member countries, via the European Council (which will have its summit that month), six months to ratify the withdrawal treaty before the U.K. leaves on March 29, 2019. It’s possible the October deadline will slip, but if negotiations go far beyond then, it will be last-chance-saloon time.

What are the biggest sticking points?

Ireland and governance. Some in Brussels and Dublin had hoped that the question of how to avoid new border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would be resolved by June’s European Council summit, but they were disappointed. Key will be a decision on the so-called backstop — an arrangement to avoid a hard border that both sides agree will come into force if the wider trade negotiations (which the Brits hope will solve the Irish border problem) ultimately fail. On the other hand, governance (how disputes over the withdrawal agreement are adjudicated) cuts across one of the U.K.’s original red lines — the continued jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. But agreement here looks more achievable: In a speech in May, British Prime Minister Theresa May signaled greater willingness to accept an indirect role for the court.

Why are so many issues still unresolved?

Because the two sides are still holding substantive talks only on the terms of the U.K.’s exit, not their future relationship. There have been some meetings about the future, but these have focused on getting an outline of what it might look like — the so-called political declaration that will accompany the withdrawal agreement. The EU has been clear that the substance of the future relationship (trade, security cooperation, foreign policy, transport, energy, broadcasting rules, data sharing, etc.) cannot be settled until the U.K. is no longer a member of the bloc.

Can MPs still change the course of Brexit?

Yes. May has promised the U.K. parliament a vote on the withdrawal agreement that she agrees on with the EU. There has been much debate about what, legally, MPs can and can’t do next if they reject the deal, but everyone in Westminster recognizes that if May loses a vote on her Brexit deal, the political pressure on her to change course would be enormous. There are several scenarios. Hard Brexiteers in her party have threatened to vote down a deal that only offers vague assurances about future trade, or that crosses too many red lines. Meanwhile pro-EU Tories might be tempted to vote against the deal if they think it could cause too much harm to the U.K. economy. In either case, the opposition Labour Party will likely vote against any deal.

What happens if there’s no deal?

If no deal is agreed between the U.K. and the EU, or the British parliament rejects the deal, technically the speaker of the House of Commons decides whether parliament has the right to dictate the U.K. government’s future course. Political pressure may mean they do so anyway, either by a vote of no confidence in May, or a Tory leadership challenge. Next steps could include the U.K. leaving with no deal, which could cause significant disruption to trade; a change in negotiating strategy; an extension of the Article 50 negotiating period that delays Brexit; or a referendum on May’s Brexit deal, which the government has so far ruled out.

This article is part of the autumn 2018 policy primer.

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