ATLANTA, GA — More than 23,000 Georgians may die of COVID-19 by August if all coronavirus restrictions are lifted by May 25, according to an online simulator developed by Georgia Tech, Harvard University and Massachusetts General Hospital.

If full restrictions continue until July 20, though, the number of projected deaths by August drops to 1,940. A full explanation of the simulator predictions can be found on this website.

Gov. Brian Kemp ordered full restrictions — shelter-in-place with all but essential businesses closed and travel only when necessary — throughout Georgia starting on April 3. However, he walked back some of those restrictions in a controversial announcement on April 20.

Starting on April 24, gyms, hair salons, bowling alleys and other businesses were allowed to reopen as long as they followed best practices to slow the spread of the coronavirus. On April 27, restaurants and movie theaters opened as well under similar restrictions. What’s left of Kemp’s original order expires Thursday.

As of noon Wednesday, the Georgia Department of Public Health reports 1,067 deaths caused by COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

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Completely lifting restrictions a month from now will lead to a second spike in infections and deaths in late July and early August, according to Turgay Ayer, a Georgia Tech health systems engineering professor who helped develop the simulator.

Seeing that spike may be enough to prevent Georgia from actually reaching more than 23,000 deaths. “I don’t think any policymaker would just sit back and watch these numbers skyrocketing.” Ayer told Patch.com. “It’s likely that we will be going through on and off periods of restrictions.” He said only continued social distancing could help contain the disease and prevent a second spike.

Meanwhile, time wasted watching numbers rise will be harmful.

“Time is of the essence here,” Ayer said. “Even a one-week delay in such key decisions may make a huge impact in the long term.”

According to the simulator, the number of coronavirus deaths in Georgia under no restrictions would rise slowly enough at first. For example, on July 20 — the day Georgia would be projected to have only 1,940 deaths if restrictions had been in place for 12 weeks — the state would show only about 3,000 deaths.

“I’m not sure if 3,000 deaths would be alarming enough for decision makers to put restrictions back into place,” Ayer said.

Wait another 10 days, though, and Georgia would be up to more than 4,500 deaths. From there, death rates would accelerate exponentially if left unchecked.

“The damage from lifting restrictions too soon could be hard to fully repair,” Ayer said. “To some extent you can correct it once you realize it was a mistake, but you cannot fully repair the damage.”

The online simulator co-developed by Georgia Tech allows users to plug in different scenarios to project possible outcomes, both state-by-state and nationwide. It uses data available as of April 22.

“We should be very careful, at least until June,” Ayer said.

Kemp, whose decision to ease some coronavirus restrictions in Georgia brought criticism even from President Donald Trump, said his teams relied on several models of coronavirus spread. WSB-TV reports that when asked about the Georgia Tech simulator, Kemp dismissed it and said he didn’t know where the data came from. Kemp’s office had not responded by Wednesday afternoon to a Patch.com request for comment on the simulator’s predictions.

Ayer’s recommendation of 12 more weeks of restrictions is similar to one from the University of Washington. Its COVID-19 website predicts 2,259 deaths in Georgia by Aug. 4, a little more than twice the current number. The first confirmed coronavirus death in the United States was recorded on Jan. 21 in Washington state.

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